Southern Africa’s lemon export estimates revised downward due to severe weather

SOUTHERN AFRICA – The Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) of Southern Africa has revised its lemon export estimates following a meeting of the Lemon Focus Group on July 30.

Initially projected at 37.9 million 15kg cartons, the forecast has been reduced to 33.9 million cartons. This adjustment reflects ongoing challenges faced by the industry throughout the season.

The reduction in export estimates is primarily due to adverse weather conditions that have affected key growing regions.

The Sundays River Valley, hit by strong winds, and Citrusdal in the Western Cape, impacted by flooding, have both seen notable decreases in their production estimates.

The Sundays River Valley’s forecast has dropped by nearly 1 million cartons, while Citrusdal’s estimate has decreased by 100,000 cartons.

Leroux Venter, Chairman of the Lemon Focus Group, provided insight into the adjustments: “There is a clear swing in the figures. It has been a very unusual season. While there was an initial concern about an oversupply of lemons, this is definitely not the case anymore. Supply will be relatively stable, and the demand, especially in Europe, looks good.”

The drier weather earlier in the season led to smaller fruit sizes, and recent severe weather events have further impacted the harvest.

These factors combined have resulted in a lower number of 15kg cartons available for export than initially anticipated. Despite the reduction, the market remains balanced with steady demand from key export destinations.

Venter highlighted the unusual nature of the season, noting that while there were fears of an oversupply, the current situation indicates a stable supply outlook. “It’s been a challenging season, but the demand in Europe is promising, and we are seeing a more balanced market,” he said.

Orange export projections also slashed

Similarly, the CGA’s Orange Focus Group has revised its estimates for Navel and Valencia oranges. The forecast for Navel oranges has been reduced from an initial 25.7 million cartons to 21 million cartons, reflecting a 19% decrease.

Valencia oranges have also seen a decrease, with the latest estimate at 51.6 million cartons, down from 56 million cartons earlier in the season.

Stiaan Engelbrecht, Chairman of the Orange Focus Group, explained: “Inclement weather over the past two weeks has meant further reduction in predicted volumes. The freezing cold in the Senwes region has reduced the Navel estimate by 600,000 cartons and Valencia volumes by one million cartons.”

Regions such as Letsitele, Hoedspruit, and Senwes have been particularly affected. Recent frost damage and high winds in various areas have contributed to the lower production forecasts. In the Western Cape, flooding and storms have also impacted the harvest.

Despite these challenges, Jan-Louis Pretorius, Vice Chairman of the CGA, noted that the adjusted figures reflect a balanced market. “These adjusted figures tell the story of a unique season,” he said.

Pretorius added that smaller fruit sizes and a good local juicing price have influenced the market, with more oranges being processed locally.

Sign up to receive our email newsletters with the latest news updates and insights from Africa and the World HERE.