SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa is facing concerns over a potential potato shortage that could drive prices to an eye-watering R200 (USD 11.28) per 10kg bag, but industry experts believe these fears are exaggerated and that the situation may not be as dire as some headlines suggest.

Mohammed Adam of M&R Marketing, operating at the Cape Town fresh produce market, recently sounded the alarm about potential stock shortages and quality issues due to severe frost in Limpopo.

“The cold spell, the worst in twenty years, destroyed significant potato crops,” Adam explained in a radio interview. He predicted retail prices could reach between R180 (USD 10.15) and R200 (USD 11.28) in the coming weeks.

However, FP Coetzee, Information Manager at Potatoes SA, provided a more balanced perspective. While acknowledging a reduction in supply, Coetzee emphasized that the overall impact on South Africa’s potato crop would be limited.

“Potatoes SA expects a reduction of 7.4 million 10kg bags from the frost, which is only about 3% of the country’s average annual potato crop of 250 million bags,” Coetzee said. “This is far less severe than some reports suggest.”

Frost impact on Limpopo farms

The frost in Limpopo affected 3,674 hectares of potato fields, with farmers reporting a 32% loss of their crops.

This translates to a 13% reduction in the region’s annual output of 56 million 10kg bags. As Limpopo typically supplies about 80% of the country’s potatoes between September and December, the impact of this loss is being closely monitored.

Despite these challenges, Coetzee believes that fears of R200 potato bags are misplaced. “We had a record crop in 2022 and saw a price rise due to an 11 million bag decrease last year, yet even then the highest price only reached R128 (USD 7.22) per 10kg bag. This year’s reduction of 7 million bags should not lead to prices doubling in the next few weeks.”

 

Market resistance to high prices

Potato traders in Gauteng are also skeptical of the steep price increases. “We’ve already seen prices rise by R15 to R20 (USD 0.85 to USD 1.13) per bag recently,” said one trader who preferred to remain anonymous. “But reaching R200 per bag? I just cannot see consumers accepting that.”

Large potatoes, which are in high demand for chips (French fries) at restaurants and take-away outlets, are currently selling for R110 (6.20) per 10kg bag at the Johannesburg market.

Traders report that smaller potatoes, which have become more common due to the frost, are being sold at lower prices, indicating that supply constraints may not be as severe as feared.

The Gauteng potato market is still being supported by supplies from the Free State, but these are expected to dwindle soon.

Even so, traders believe that prices will not skyrocket as some have predicted. “We’re already seeing resistance at R110 for large potatoes,” one trader noted.

“If prices go much higher, people will simply buy less, and I can’t see the market sustaining R200 per bag.”

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