South African orange export estimates slashed due to extreme weather

SOUTH AFRICA – The Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) of Southern Africa has further reduced its orange export estimates for the 2024 season, citing severe weather impacts.

The CGA’s Orange Focus Group recently revised its export estimates, showing a significant drop in projected volumes for both Navel and Valencia oranges. These adjustments are primarily due to extreme weather events in key growing regions.

For Navel oranges, the projected export volume has been revised down to 21 million 15kg cartons. This marks a continuous decline from the season-opening estimate of 25.7 million cartons in May, followed by a reduction to 22 million cartons. This latest figure represents a 19% total reduction for the season.

Valencia oranges have also seen a downward adjustment, with the latest estimate now at 51.6 million 15kg cartons.

This is a decrease from the May forecast of 56 million cartons and the April estimate of 58 million cartons, reflecting an 11% reduction from the initial projection.

Regions such as Letsitele, Hoedspruit, and the Senwes areas (Marble Hall and Groblersdal) have been particularly affected. Marble Hall and Groblersdal experienced recent frost damage, further impacting production forecasts.

“Inclement weather over the past two weeks has meant further reduction in predicted volumes,” said Stiaan Engelbrecht, Chairman of the Orange Focus Group.

“The freezing cold in the Senwes region has reduced the Navel estimate by 600,000 cartons and the Valencia volumes by one million cartons.”

Other regions, such as the Western Cape (Citrusdal), have faced flooding and storms, while the Eastern Cape has been hit by high winds. These conditions cause fruit to drop prematurely, and frost damage has compounded the problem.

The revised figures indicate a balanced market, preventing an oversupply of oranges. “These adjusted figures tell the story of a unique season,” said Jan-Louis Pretorius, Vice Chairman of the CGA and a citrus grower in Limpopo.

He noted that drier and warmer conditions had resulted in smaller fruit sizes, while a good local juicing price encouraged growers to divert more oranges to processing. The recent bad weather has further complicated the situation.

The financial damage from the floods in Citrusdal has not yet been calculated, but export oranges have started moving out of the area. Gerrit van der Merwe, Chairman of the CGA and a grower in Citrusdal, praised the resilience of the local community.

“Citrus is now moving, and disruption has been minimized. People are working hard and can catch up with the delays in about eight to nine days,” he said.

Future prospects and government support

Meanwhile, the first budget speech from South Africa’s new Minister of Agriculture, John Steenhuisen, has set a positive tone for the future of the agricultural sector.

He emphasized the importance of resolving the citrus dispute with the European Union and maintaining South Africa’s part in the US AGOA Act.

“This, along with greater market access, will help us to open new opportunities for the sector,” Steenhuisen stated.

Steenhuisen also highlighted recent successes in new markets, such as the first South African avocado exports to India, China, and Japan.

He stressed the need for effective export logistics, including well-maintained ports, rail, and roads, to boost the export drive. The government is committed to ensuring security in the agriculture sector for both farmers and workers.