GLOBAL – Global schedule reliability dropped slightly in July, yet Maersk emerged as the most reliable carrier, according to the latest data from Sea-Intelligence.

Global schedule reliability in July 2024 decreased by 2.1 percentage points month-over-month, settling at 52.1 percent.

This drop marks a continuation of the trends observed throughout 2024, where reliability has hovered between 50 and 55 percent.

“Schedule reliability in July is almost at the same level as it was at the start of the year,” noted Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence. He added that while the monthly dip is slight, on a year-over-year basis, schedule reliability saw a significant decline of 12 percentage points.

Despite the decline, Maersk secured the top spot as the most reliable carrier among the leading 13 carriers, achieving a schedule reliability rate of 54.6 percent.

The report highlighted that only three other carriers managed to surpass the 50 percent mark, while nine others lingered between 40 and 50 percent.

On the other end of the spectrum, Wan Hai was identified as the least reliable carrier, with a reliability rate of 41.3 percent.

The update further emphasized that only ZIM and MSC showed month-over-month improvements in schedule reliability. In contrast, Wan Hai recorded the most significant decline, dropping by 11.6 percentage points.

In a related development, container ship contracts have surged in 2024, with a total capacity of 1.59 million TEU contracted so far. This marks the third-highest capacity since 2008, trailing only behind the first seven months of 2021 and 2022.

Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, stated, “The appetite for new ships remains high, and year-to-date contracting already exceeds the 2023 full-year total.”

The update noted that the combined capacity contracted from 2021 to 2024 has reached 10.47 million TEU, surpassing previous records.

“However, the average age of container ships has increased slightly, from 13 years in early 2021 to 13.9 years today. This rise in age is attributed to the low levels of ship recycling since 2021.

Despite these gains, the market faces potential challenges. Freight rates and time charter rates experienced a setback in 2023 due to market growth lagging behind fleet expansion.

The ongoing Red Sea crisis has temporarily increased demand for ships by lengthening voyages. However, there is concern that if fleet growth continues and the crisis ends, the industry might face significant oversupply issues.

“The fleet is expected to grow at least 12 percent before the end of the decade, equal to an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent,” Rasmussen cautioned.

“Although cargo volume growth might match that pace, we could see pronounced oversupply if fleet growth ends higher and the Red Sea crisis ends, lowering ship demand significantly.”

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