KENYA – Kenya’s avocado exports to China have sharply declined, with an 80% drop in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.
Chinese Customs data reveals that from January to July 2024, the volume of avocado exports fell drastically from 3,674,463 kilograms to 742,934 kilograms.
This decline has not only affected the quantity but also slashed the earnings of Kenyan exporters, which dropped from USD 6.83 million to USD 1.23 million during the same period.
The sharp decrease in exports to China can be attributed to Kenyan exporters shifting their focus to more lucrative markets in Europe and North America. Nearly 60% of Kenya’s avocado exports are now directed to the European Union, with the Netherlands, France, and Spain being the primary destinations.
“The Chinese market is large, but it hasn’t yet reached the scale to replace our European demand,” commented an industry insider.
The Chinese market, despite its vast potential with over 1.4 billion people, has not yet reached the level of demand that Kenyan exporters have been accustomed to in Europe.
Additionally, Kenyan avocados face stiff competition from other major producers like Mexico and Peru, which are also eyeing the Chinese market. This competition has made it difficult for Kenyan exporters to maintain their earlier momentum in China.
However, this situation is a stark contrast to the success seen in 2023 when Kenya’s avocado exports to China surged nearly tenfold.
In that year, the total volume of avocado exports to China reached 4,324.1 tons, reflecting a growing acceptance of Kenyan avocados in the Chinese market.
Despite the decline in 2024, there is cautious optimism about the long-term potential of the Chinese market. Kenyan exporters are exploring opportunities not only in China but also in India and the Middle East to diversify their market base and reduce their reliance on the European Union.
“We are confident that, with time, the Chinese market will mature and become a stable destination for our avocados,” said an industry expert.
Kenya began exporting avocados to China in August 2022, after years of negotiations and meeting regulatory requirements set by Chinese authorities.
The 2024 avocado export season in Kenya, started from March 1st and is set to run through to November. This date was established by the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) after assessing the maturity and volume of avocado fruits in major production zones.
While the current decline presents challenges, the potential for growth remains. The exploration of long-term opportunities in emerging markets like China, India, and the Middle East is seen as a crucial step in ensuring the sustainability of Kenya’s avocado industry.
“Our focus now is on building relationships and understanding the dynamics of these markets to secure future growth,” added the industry insider.
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